Used vehicle pricing expected to increase 2% in 2026, a historically stable rate

Core Insights - Used vehicle prices are projected to rise by 2% by the end of 2025, according to Cox Automotive's Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index [1] - This year's increase follows a trend of minimal increases of 0.4% in the past two years, after significant declines of 7% and nearly 15% in 2023 and 2022, respectively [2] - Despite the expected increase, used vehicle prices remain higher than pre-pandemic levels, with retail prices not decreasing as quickly as wholesale prices [3] Pricing Trends - The average annual increase in the index is approximately 2%, based on data from 1998, excluding the outlier years of 2021 and 2022 [3] - Monthly fluctuations in pricing are anticipated, with a typical month-to-month change of only 0.2% [4] Market Outlook - Positive indicators for the auto market include the lowest auto loan rates in a year and anticipated increases in consumer tax refunds, which may boost demand [5] - Used vehicle sales are expected to decline by 0.9% year-over-year to 38.3 million in 2026, including a 0.7% decrease in retail sales [5]