平安基金研究总监张晓泉 科技和周期股将双轮驱动

Core Insights - The A-share market is expected to present investment opportunities in 2026, driven by both technology and cyclical sectors, with a strong market performance anticipated as the Shanghai Composite Index approaches 4100 points [3][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Multiple factors are contributing to the strong market performance at the beginning of 2026, including the reallocation of insurance funds to equity assets, the appreciation of the RMB, and increased market interest in technology sectors such as commercial aerospace and brain-computer interfaces [4]. - The market's rebound is supported by improved liquidity, heightened risk appetite, and ongoing technological narratives, creating a favorable environment for investment [4]. Group 2: Sector Opportunities - The technology sector continues to show strong trends without significant valuation bubbles, making it a key investment focus for 2026, while cyclical sectors are also expected to present opportunities [5]. - The cyclical industry is anticipated to benefit from reduced debt pressure and favorable overseas demand, particularly due to expectations of continued Federal Reserve rate cuts and potential economic recovery following a ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine conflict [5]. - Specific sectors to watch include chemicals, non-ferrous metals, agriculture, and construction materials, as they are likely to experience noticeable demand changes due to the cyclical recovery [5]. Group 3: Long-term Investment Themes - In the long term, potential structural beneficiaries in AI applications are identified, with key areas including consumer-facing AI, multi-modal AI applications, AI companionship products, and AI-driven enhancements to traditional enterprise resource planning (ERP) software [5].