【管窥天下】2025年全球能源变革：范式跃迁与路线分化的交响曲

Core Insights - By 2025, the global clean energy sector will transition from policy-driven growth to market-driven dynamics, establishing clean energy as a primary power source [1] - The geopolitical landscape surrounding energy transition is intensifying, with major countries adopting divergent energy strategies [3] Group 1: Market and Structural Turning Points - The International Energy Agency states that to meet the Paris Agreement's 1.5°C target, global renewable energy capacity must triple by 2030 compared to 2022 levels, with an average energy efficiency growth rate doubling [2] - In 2025, global renewable energy installations will exceed 700 GW, marking a 20% increase from 2024, approaching the 2030 target [2] - The growth of renewable energy is now primarily driven by the absolute cost advantage of clean energy technologies rather than fiscal subsidies, with wind and solar power generation surpassing coal for the first time [2] Group 2: Geopolitical Dynamics and Differentiated Paths - The Trump administration's "America First Energy Policy" has led to a systematic retreat from global green governance, impacting clean energy investments and imposing tariffs on solar components and electric vehicle parts [3] - China is transitioning from being a "super supplier" of clean energy equipment to a "model definitor" of new energy systems, actively promoting carbon peak and carbon neutrality initiatives [3] - The EU, traditionally a leader in green development, faces challenges in its clean energy transition speed due to geopolitical tensions and internal competitiveness issues [4] Group 3: System Reconstruction and Transition Challenges - The global energy landscape is shifting from "fuel supply anxiety" to "electricity system and industrial chain competition," emphasizing complex system governance over mere electricity expansion [6] - Digital technologies are enabling the rise of virtual power plants (VPPs), with China aiming for over 20 million kW of adjustment capacity by 2027 [6] - Global low-carbon transition investments surpassed $2 trillion for the first time in 2025, with a growing ratio of clean energy to fossil fuel investments at 2.5:1, highlighting the need to address quality risks and financial challenges [7]