Start-of-the-year recovery rally stalls: Crypto Daybook Americas

Core Insights - Major cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin, XRP, and Solana, have experienced a decline of over 1.5% in the past 24 hours, with all 16 CoinDesk sectoral indexes in the red, particularly the DeFi Select Index which dropped by 3.6% [1] - Analysts are questioning whether the early-year rally was due to genuine conviction buying or seasonal factors, as evidenced by the inflows and subsequent losses in U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs [2] - The recent pullback indicates the fragility of the rally, with price movements sensitive to liquidity shifts rather than strong conviction buying [3] Market Indicators - The Coinbase Premium, which reflects U.S. investor demand, remains negative, suggesting that U.S. investors have not yet participated in the rally despite the end of tax-related selling [4] - Positive signs for bulls include a rise in cumulative crypto futures open interest to its highest level in nearly two months, indicating renewed investor risk appetite [5] - Funding rates for perpetual futures tied to cryptocurrencies are improving, which historically supports sustained market advances when rates hold above approximately 0.01% [6] External Influences - Japanese government bond yields have reached record highs, raising concerns about their impact on risk assets, including Bitcoin, which may be influenced by potential churn in Japanese markets [6] - Bitcoin's correlation with the Japanese yen has strengthened, suggesting that fluctuations in Japanese markets could affect cryptocurrency prices [7] - Upcoming economic data releases, such as the ADP Employment report and ISM non-manufacturing data, could contribute to market volatility [7]