资金面料延续宽松态势

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is expected to maintain liquidity through various monetary policy tools, including reverse repos and medium-term lending facilities (MLF), amid multiple factors affecting January's liquidity [1][2][3][4] Group 1: Liquidity Operations - On January 8, the PBOC conducted a 99 billion yuan 7-day reverse repo operation at a rate of 1.4%, resulting in a net injection of 99 billion yuan due to the maturity of other repos [1] - The PBOC is likely to continue using tools like government bond transactions and MLF to ensure ample liquidity, with expectations of a sustained loose monetary environment [1][3] Group 2: Factors Affecting Liquidity - January's liquidity is influenced by multiple factors, including fiscal deposits and credit issuance, with a projected net increase in fiscal deposits of approximately 620 billion yuan, potentially widening the liquidity gap [2] - Credit issuance is expected to have an above-seasonal performance in January, driven by banks' early lending strategies, which may further increase the liquidity gap [2] Group 3: Policy Tool Utilization - The market anticipates that the PBOC will intensify the use of policy tools to stabilize liquidity, with expectations of less volatility in funding rates compared to seasonal patterns [2][3] - The PBOC's monetary policy is expected to remain "moderately loose," utilizing a combination of reverse repos, MLF, and government bond transactions to inject medium-term liquidity [4] Group 4: Long-term Monetary Policy Outlook - The PBOC's 2026 monetary policy is characterized by "quantity expansion and price stability," with a focus on maintaining liquidity while being cautious with tools like reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions [4] - The overall liquidity environment is projected to remain ample, with low volatility in funding rates becoming the norm, supported by the PBOC's targeted operations [4]