VICI In A Rapidly Changing Gaming Environment (NYSE:VICI)

Core Viewpoint - VICI Properties (VICI) is currently undervalued at an 11.7X AFFO multiple, despite concerns about the changing gaming environment and declining travel to Las Vegas [2][43]. Industry Analysis - The legal landscape for online sports betting changed significantly in 2018 when the Supreme Court overturned PASPA, allowing states to regulate their own sports betting laws [4]. - Online gaming revenue has surged, now accounting for 30% of commercial gaming revenue, up from 11% in 2021, raising concerns that it may cannibalize traditional casino revenues [6]. - Visitor numbers to Las Vegas have declined, with a reported 3.09 million visitors in September, a 9% decrease from the previous year, and convention attendance down over 18% [7]. Company Analysis - VICI has a favorable leasing structure where tenants are responsible for property upgrades, and it has the most efficient overhead among REITs [5]. - Major tenants, Caesars Entertainment and MGM Resorts, account for 70% of VICI's rental revenue [31]. - VICI's revenues are derived from long-term master leases with built-in escalators, providing stability despite the volatility in casino earnings [33]. Financial Performance - VICI's AFFO has remained stable, showing no significant impact from the current weakness in Las Vegas or the rise of online sports betting [36]. - The company is expected to achieve a 6.3% dividend yield and 4% annual AFFO growth, with potential for higher returns if the stock appreciates to a higher multiple [47]. Market Sentiment - The current market valuation of VICI appears to be overly pessimistic, trading at a discount compared to peers despite its superior track record and growth potential [46]. - Analysts believe that the downturn in Las Vegas is cyclical rather than secular, suggesting a recovery is likely [21].