Dollar Recovers as US Service Sector Activity Expands

分组1 - The dollar index (DXY00) increased by +0.09% after the Dec ISM services index unexpectedly expanded at its fastest pace in 14 months, indicating a recovery from early losses [1] - The Dec ADP employment report showed an increase of +41,000 jobs, which was below the expected +50,000, suggesting a weaker labor market [3] - The Nov JOLTS report indicated a decline of -303,000 job openings to a 14-month low of 7.146 million, also reflecting a weaker labor market than anticipated [3] 分组2 - The markets are pricing in a 14% chance of a -25 basis point rate cut at the FOMC's next meeting on January 27-28, with expectations of a -50 basis point cut in 2026 [4] - The Fed has begun purchasing $40 billion a month in T-bills since mid-December, which is contributing to underlying weakness in the dollar [5] - Concerns regarding President Trump's potential appointment of a dovish Fed Chair are also pressuring the dollar, with Kevin Hassett being viewed as the most dovish candidate [5] 分组3 - The euro (EUR/USD) decreased by -0.05% due to negative economic news, including lower-than-expected core consumer price increases and a significant decline in German retail sales [6]