国信策略：2026年入市增量资金有望超两万亿

Group 1 - The core conclusion indicates that in 2025, the A-share market shows distinct characteristics of incremental capital, with leveraged funds and private equity becoming the main forces entering the market, while public funds experienced net redemptions [1][29] - Current incoming funds are primarily sourced from high-net-worth individuals, and as the risk appetite of most residents gradually recovers from low levels, ordinary residents' funds are expected to become the main source of market entry in 2026 [1][29] - The macro and micro background of 2025 shares similarities with 2020, but the structure of incremental capital differs, with an estimated total incremental capital of 2 trillion yuan expected in 2026 as the process of resident funds entering the market progresses [1][29] Group 2 - The report highlights that the A-share market is expected to enter the second half of a bull market in 2026, driven by the recovery of fundamentals and the further entry of resident funds [2][30] - In 2025, the A-share market saw a significant performance, with the Wind All A Index rising by 28% throughout the year, supported by abundant liquidity [3][32] - The inflow of funds in 2025 can be divided into two phases, with the first half characterized by a recovery in market sentiment and various funds entering the market due to policy support and industrial catalysts [3][32] Group 3 - In the first half of 2025, the main sectors attracting incremental funds included technology and dividend sectors, with significant inflows into banks and materials [4][33] - By the third quarter of 2025, the market experienced a surge, primarily driven by private equity and leveraged trading, with a notable increase in risk appetite among investors [6][36] - The third quarter saw substantial inflows into sectors such as non-ferrous metals, electronics, and new energy, reflecting the ongoing demand for these industries [7][37] Group 4 - The report indicates that the entry of resident funds into the market is still in its early stages, primarily coming from high-net-worth individuals, as the majority of residents have not yet made significant market entries [11][41] - Evidence suggests that the risk appetite of residents is gradually improving, with a notable increase in the willingness to invest in high-risk assets such as stocks and funds [9][42] - Despite the recovery in risk appetite, many residents remain cautious, with a significant portion of their funds still allocated to low-risk products [15][46] Group 5 - The forecast for 2026 anticipates a net inflow of incremental capital reaching 2 trillion yuan, driven by active retail funds, continued high inflows from insurance capital, and improvements in public and foreign capital [19][52] - The report outlines that the inflow of funds will come from various sources, including retail investors, leveraged funds, and domestic institutional funds, while outflows will primarily be directed towards equity financing and capital reductions [48][49] - The overall funding inflow situation in 2025 is similar to that of 2020, but the structure of incremental capital has changed significantly, with leveraged funds and private equity playing a more prominent role [20][49]