伯恩斯坦拉响警报：流动性泛滥催生“全面泡沫“，AI仅是冰山一角

Core Viewpoint - Richard Bernstein Advisors (RBA) warns that excess liquidity is driving asset prices to levels far beyond fundamental support, indicating a "broad-based bubble" in the market [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The current market bubble extends beyond artificial intelligence (AI) to include cryptocurrencies, meme stocks, SPACs, investment-grade bonds, and high-yield bonds [1] - The RBA's Deputy Chief Investment Officer, Mike Kantoropoulos, attributes this valuation frenzy to loose monetary and fiscal policies [1] Group 2: Concerns Regarding AI - Kantoropoulos expresses particular concern for credit investors regarding the AI boom, noting that if AI succeeds, bondholders cannot share in the excess returns, and if it fails, investors will incur losses [1] - The market is increasingly focused on the hundreds of billions of dollars that tech giants are committing to AI infrastructure, much of which will be raised through the U.S. debt market [1] - Major tech companies like Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, and Meta are expected to increase capital expenditures by 34% to approximately $440 billion over the next year [1] Group 3: Investment Strategy - RBA has completely exited the corporate bond market, having previously been overweight in this area a year ago [1] - Kantoropoulos questions the rationale behind investors' willingness to finance potentially outdated technology for up to 40 years [1] Group 4: Credit Market Insights - As of Wednesday, the U.S. high-grade credit risk premium rose to 78 basis points, remaining below 90 basis points since May of the previous year [2] - Kantoropoulos warns that if the Federal Reserve's rate cuts do not meet market expectations, credit spreads may widen further this year [2] - Given the thin levels of corporate bond spreads, RBA is shifting its focus to collateralized loan obligations (CLOs), mortgage-backed securities (MBS), high-quality floating-rate debt, and European equities [2] - Kantoropoulos highlights the attractiveness of high-quality European stocks due to fiscal stimulus, supportive monetary policy, and accelerating earnings growth [2]