中信建投：本轮白酒调整期拐点将至 白酒板块迎来周期底部配置机会

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities suggests that the high-end liquor industry is approaching a fundamental turning point, indicating a potential bottoming opportunity for investment as the market enters a cyclical low phase after a decade [1] Group 1: Historical Analysis - The period from 2012 to 2015 saw a significant decline in high-end liquor demand due to the "Three Public Consumption" ban, leading to a price competition that shaped the high-end brand landscape [2] - From 2016 to 2021, the rise of mass consumption and accelerated consumption upgrades resulted in both volume and price increases for high-end liquor, driven by favorable economic conditions and changing consumer preferences [2] - The period from 2022 to 2025 indicates a transition from growth to a contraction phase in the liquor industry, with leading companies managing to grow revenues despite pressures on pricing due to declining macroeconomic indicators [2] Group 2: Investment Recommendations - The liquor industry is expected to reach a turning point as policy restrictions on consumption are gradually relaxed, and the most pessimistic sales conditions are believed to be over, with expectations for improved sales by mid-year [3] - The adjustment of product strategies by leading brands like Moutai is anticipated to stabilize industry pricing, with expectations that the production volume will drop below 4 million kiloliters by 2025, marking a potential bottom for the industry [3] - The liquor sector is characterized by low expectations, low valuations, and low public fund holdings, making it a high-value investment opportunity as the market approaches a cyclical low [4] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The capital market's expectations for the liquor industry have been declining, with negative annualized returns since 2021, and the valuation levels and public fund holdings are at low points [4] - Leading liquor companies are focusing on shareholder returns through increased dividends and share buybacks, which is expected to stabilize market expectations and support stock prices [4] - High-end liquor is viewed as a key indicator of industry cycles, with leading companies likely to recover before the broader industry, suggesting a stronger performance for high-end liquor stocks [4]