改善和稳定房地产市场预期

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese real estate market is undergoing significant changes, with a shift from a housing shortage to a balance in supply and demand, necessitating effective policy measures to stabilize market expectations and promote healthy development [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The real estate market has experienced a substantial decline in sales and prices due to oversupply in certain projects and cities, impacting the demand side of the economy and financial institutions [1]. - The market is transitioning from a rapid growth phase to a stable development phase, with a focus on improving existing housing quality rather than expanding new construction [3]. - The average urban housing area per person reached 38.6 square meters in 2020, with projections to increase to around 41 square meters by the end of 2024 [2]. Group 2: Economic Importance - The real estate sector remains a crucial part of the national economy, contributing 13% to the GDP and directly supporting over 70 million jobs [4]. - Despite a decrease in investment scale, sectors like housing services and real estate asset management continue to grow, indicating significant market potential [5]. Group 3: Housing Demand and Supply - There is a structural supply shortage, particularly in affordable housing, with new citizens and young people facing significant housing burdens [3]. - The demand for housing is shifting from mere availability to quality, with residents increasingly seeking improved living conditions [3]. Group 4: Policy Measures - The Central Political Bureau has emphasized stabilizing the real estate market and promoting a new development model, implementing a series of policies to support this goal [7]. - Policies include enhancing housing supply, improving living conditions, and ensuring the completion of housing projects, with a focus on meeting the diverse needs of residents [7][10]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The real estate market is at a critical juncture, requiring time for the transition from old to new development models, with a need for strategic policy implementation to stabilize market expectations [9]. - The urbanization rate is projected to reach 67% by 2024, indicating ongoing demand for housing, particularly among new residents and graduates [6].