多重利好因素共振 尿素市场迎“开门红”

Core Viewpoint - The domestic urea market is expected to end its downward trend in November 2025 and enter a recovery phase, driven by steady demand release, reduced supply, and increased exports, leading to a price increase in early 2026 [1] Group 1: Demand Recovery - A new batch of urea export quotas totaling approximately 600,000 tons was issued in November 2025, boosting market activity [2] - In December 2025, domestic urea consumption reached around 5.38 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 27.49% and a year-on-year increase of 37.15% [2] Group 2: Supply Constraints - Urea inventories in domestic enterprises have decreased for three consecutive months, with December 2025 inventory at 1.0689 million tons, down from 1.5543 million tons in October [5] - The supply of urea has tightened due to maintenance shutdowns and environmental regulations, leading to a daily production drop to around 190,000 tons, a decrease of 5% [5] Group 3: Export Growth - Cumulative urea exports reached 4.6161 million tons in the first eleven months of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 1663.22% [6] - The announcement of a new urea tender by India for 1.5 million tons has positively impacted market confidence and prices [6] Group 4: Market Outlook - Short-term market demand is expected to fluctuate slightly, but long-term demand growth remains strong, particularly in the agricultural and industrial sectors [3] - Key factors influencing the market include the pace of new capacity coming online, export policy adjustments, and the speed of low-carbon transition [7]