进口“断崖”：美国10月贸易逆差创14年新低，关税效应下GDP预测飙升至5.4%

Core Insights - The U.S. trade deficit unexpectedly narrowed significantly in October, reaching its lowest level since 2009, primarily due to a sharp decline in imports, especially in pharmaceuticals [1] - The October trade deficit for goods and services decreased by 39% from the previous month, falling to $29.4 billion, which was below all economists' expectations [1] - The decline in total imports by 3.2% reflects a drop in pharmaceutical and non-monetary gold imports, with pharmaceutical imports hitting their lowest point since July 2022 [1] Group 1: Trade Dynamics - The sharp reduction in imports is attributed to a "tariff avoidance" effect, where companies stockpiled goods in anticipation of a 100% tariff on imported pharmaceuticals that was ultimately delayed [1] - Many companies negotiated with the government to lower drug prices, thereby circumventing the anticipated tariff [1] - Trade data has shown significant monthly fluctuations due to U.S. tariff policies, particularly affecting non-monetary gold and pharmaceutical trade volumes [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The increase in computer and accessory imports suggests strong signs of growth in other economic sectors amid the AI development boom [2] - The U.S. third-quarter labor productivity growth accelerated to its fastest pace in two years, with expectations for further enhancement due to increased investment in AI [2] - Following the latest trade report, the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model predicts that net exports will contribute nearly 2 percentage points to fourth-quarter economic growth, raising the GDP growth forecast to 5.4% [2] Group 3: Regional Trade Patterns - The trade deficit with Ireland has sharply narrowed, as many large U.S. pharmaceutical companies have outsourced production to Ireland due to its favorable tax environment [2] - The trade deficit with Mexico and China has widened, while the deficit with Canada has decreased, indicating shifts in trade dynamics [3] - Canadian statistics show that due to a surge in computer and electronic product imports, Canada’s trade balance has reverted to a deficit, with exports to the U.S. dropping to 67.3%, the lowest level since 1997, excluding the pandemic period [3]