Zhong Guo Neng Yuan Wang·2026-01-09 00:59Core Viewpoint - The fluorochemical industry index underperformed compared to the broader chemical and stock market indices in December, indicating a weaker performance in the sector [2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of December 31, the Shanghai Composite Index was at 3968.84 points, up 2.06% from November 28, while the CSI 300 Index rose 2.28% to 4629.94 points [2]. - The Shenwan Chemical Index increased by 4.43% to 4372.39 points, whereas the fluorochemical index rose only 1.89% to 2018.62 points, underperforming the Shenwan Chemical Index by 2.54 percentage points [2]. Group 2: Price Trends - In the first quarter, mainstream refrigerant long-term contract prices are expected to continue rising, with R32 contracts priced at 61,200 yuan/ton (up 1.66%) and R410A at 55,100 yuan/ton (up 3.57%) compared to Q4 2025 [2]. - R134a prices increased to 58,000 yuan/ton, R125 to 47,500 yuan/ton, and R410A to 54,500 yuan/ton, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 2,500 yuan/ton and 1,500 yuan/ton respectively [3]. Group 3: Production and Demand - Domestic air conditioning production is projected to grow by 11% year-on-year in January 2026, with January production at 7.86 million units (up 8.9%) and February at 6.48 million units (down 12.0%) [4]. - The liquid cooling technology is driving demand for fluorinated liquids and refrigerants, as traditional cooling methods reach their limits [4]. Group 4: Industry Developments - PVDF prices are rising due to increased production costs and improved supply-demand dynamics, with mainstream prices for different grades ranging from 54,000 to 60,000 yuan/ton [5]. - Key industry news includes mergers and expansions by companies like Dongyangguang and Dongyue Group, indicating ongoing consolidation and growth in the sector [5]. Group 5: Investment Recommendations - The tightening of refrigerant quotas is expected to maintain a balance in supply and demand for mainstream refrigerants like R32, R134a, and R125, suggesting potential for price increases [6]. - Companies with strong infrastructure and advanced technology in the fluorochemical sector, such as Juhua Co., Dongyue Group, and Sanmei Co., are recommended for investment [6].