深度下行空间已十分有限 镍价底部特征显现

Core Viewpoint - The nickel market is experiencing a downturn, with prices hitting new lows due to a combination of oversupply and policy changes from Indonesia, the largest nickel supplier [1][3][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Copper and aluminum prices are reaching new highs, while nickel prices are declining, indicating a divergence in the non-ferrous metals market [1]. - Nickel production in China is projected to reach approximately 360,000 tons from January to November 2025, marking a significant year-on-year increase of 19.34% [2]. - Global nickel inventories have surpassed 310,000 tons by early December 2025, with an increase of over 100,000 tons throughout the year, indicating a high inventory level [2]. Group 2: Cost and Pricing Pressure - Nickel prices have fallen below the cost of purchasing raw materials and some integrated processes, leading to a lack of strong cost support for current price levels [2]. - The lowest production costs in the industry continue to decline, anchoring market prices to these lower levels amid oversupply [2]. Group 3: Policy Variables - Indonesia's potential policy changes could significantly impact future nickel supply, with mining quotas expected to decrease from 379 million tons in 2025 to approximately 250 million tons in 2026 [3]. - Proposed adjustments to pricing and tax regulations in Indonesia may increase mining costs, as cobalt and other by-products will be treated as independent commodities subject to royalties [3]. - The market is highly sensitive to any potential supply reductions from Indonesia, which could lead to a rapid price rebound based on rising cost expectations [3]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The potential for further declines in nickel prices appears limited, with a preliminary bottom possibly established [4]. - Future market direction will heavily depend on the final outcomes of Indonesia's mining quota approvals and the implementation of related tax policies [4].