光大期货：1月9日能源化工日报

Oil Market - Oil prices increased on Thursday, with WTI February contract closing up by $1.77 to $57.76 per barrel, a rise of 3.16% [2][15] - Brent March contract closed up by $2.03 to $61.99 per barrel, a rise of 3.39% [2][15] - The Iranian oil supply, which accounts for 2% of global supply, may face risks due to domestic unrest and government warnings against hoarding [2][16] - Iraq's government approved a plan for state control over the West Qurna-2 oil field to mitigate impacts from U.S. sanctions on its previous operator, Russia's Lukoil [2][16] Fuel Oil - The main fuel oil contract FU2603 rose by 0.04% to 2458 yuan/ton, while low-sulfur fuel oil contract LU2603 increased by 1.14% to 2929 yuan/ton [3][17] - Singapore's onshore fuel oil inventory decreased by 5.02% to 25.408 million barrels, while Fujairah's inventory fell by 10.19% to 8.899 million barrels [3][17] - The overall supply of fuel oil in Singapore is expected to be surplus in January, with low-sulfur fuel oil demand remaining weak due to holiday effects [3][17] Asphalt - The main asphalt contract BU2602 fell by 0.76% to 3117 yuan/ton, with domestic asphalt shipment volume decreasing by 3.8% [4][18] - The utilization rate of modified asphalt production among 69 sampled companies was 6.7%, a decrease of 0.8% [4][18] - The market is expected to stabilize with potential upward pressure on prices due to raw material supply uncertainties [4][18] Rubber - The main rubber contract RU2605 fell by 60 yuan/ton to 16120 yuan/ton, while NR main contract dropped by 85 yuan/ton to 13065 yuan/ton [5][19] - Vietnam's natural rubber exports increased by 25.97% month-on-month to 238,700 tons, but cumulative exports for the year fell by 5.26% [5][19] - The rubber market is expected to remain stable amid easing rainfall in production areas and a slight recovery in macroeconomic conditions [5][19] PX & PTA & MEG - TA605 closed at 5086 yuan/ton, down 1.24%, while EG2605 closed at 3846 yuan/ton, down 0.85% [6][20] - PX futures closed at 7168 yuan/ton, down 1.62%, with spot prices at $886/ton [6][20] - The overall operating rate for ethylene glycol in mainland China was 73.93%, with a slight increase in production expected [6][21] Methanol - Methanol prices in Taicang were at 2220 yuan/ton, with CFR China prices ranging from $264 to $268/ton [7][22] - Domestic production is expected to increase slightly, while imports are projected to decline from high levels [7][22] - The market anticipates support from reduced Iranian shipments affecting port arrivals [7][22] Polyolefins - Mainstream prices for polyolefins in East China ranged from 6200 to 6400 yuan/ton, with various production margins reported [8][23] - Supply is expected to decrease slightly due to temporary maintenance, while demand is anticipated to recover slightly before the Lunar New Year [8][23] - Overall inventory pressure is expected to rise towards the end of January [8][23] PVC - PVC prices in East China showed slight declines, with mainstream prices for different grades reported [9][24] - Supply remains high while domestic demand is slowing, leading to a bearish outlook for the market [9][24] - The overall market is expected to maintain a bottoming trend with limited upward potential [9][24] Urea - Urea futures prices slightly declined, with the main contract closing at 1776 yuan/ton [10][25] - The average sales rate in major regions was only 23%, indicating weak demand [10][25] - Supply levels are expected to increase as more companies resume production [10][25] Soda Ash - Soda ash futures prices showed a slight increase, closing at 1239 yuan/ton [11][26] - The industry operating rate increased by 4.43%, with production rising by 8.11% [11][26] - Overall supply is expected to improve, while demand remains cautious [11][26] Glass - Glass futures prices showed a strong upward trend, closing at 1163 yuan/ton, with spot prices also rising [12][27] - The production rate in the industry decreased, while demand remains positive [12][27] - Inventory levels have decreased, supporting manufacturers' pricing strategies [12][27]