光大期货：1月9日软商品日报

Sugar Market - As of January 7, 2025/26 crushing season, Thailand's cumulative sugarcane crushed reached 16.9782 million tons, a decrease of 5.765 million tons or 25.35% compared to the same period last year [3][6] - Sugar content in sugarcane was 11.54%, down 0.08% from 11.62% last year; sugar extraction rate was 9.017%, a decrease of 0.209% from 9.226% last year [3][6] - Sugar production amounted to 1.5309 million tons, down 567,300 tons or 27.03% from 2.0982 million tons last year [3][6] - Current spot prices for sugar in Guangxi range from 5,320 to 5,380 CNY/ton, with a slight increase of 10 CNY/ton for some; Yunnan's prices remain stable at 5,140 to 5,230 CNY/ton [3][6] - Domestic sugar prices have been supported by macroeconomic sentiment and a rebound in commodity prices, but there is significant pressure from hedging positions, leading to expectations of continued price fluctuations [3][6] Cotton Market - On Thursday, ICE cotton fell by 0.69%, closing at 64.4 cents per pound; Zheng cotton's main contract decreased by 1.5%, closing at 14,740 CNY/ton [7] - The main contract's open interest decreased by 62,575 contracts to 852,900 contracts; the cotton 3128B spot price index was 15,610 CNY/ton, down 70 CNY/ton from the previous day [7] - The international market is experiencing significant macro disturbances, with limited marginal changes in fundamentals, leading to a predominantly volatile market [7] - Domestic market sentiment has cooled slightly, with recent strong expectations driving prices; however, increased procurement costs at high price levels may impact future operations [7] - The market is expected to experience wide fluctuations in the short term, while medium to long-term policies may provide positive outlooks for cotton prices [7]