华泰期货：铜价震荡走弱 但后市仍相对看好

Market Overview - On January 8, 2026, the main copper futures contract opened at 103,200 CNY/ton and closed at 101,220 CNY/ton, a decrease of 2.12% from the previous trading day [2] - The night session saw the contract open at 101,660 CNY/ton and close at 101,230 CNY/ton, down 0.98% from the afternoon close [2] Spot Market Situation - The SMM 1 electrolytic copper spot price ranged from a discount of 180 CNY to a premium of 50 CNY/ton, with an average discount of 65 CNY, narrowing by 15 CNY from the previous day [3] - Mainstream spot prices were between 101,470 CNY and 102,700 CNY/ton, with the futures contract showing a high-low fluctuation before closing at 101,730 CNY/ton [3] - The contango price difference remained between 110 CNY and 200 CNY/ton, with import losses estimated at 550-800 CNY/ton [3] Important News Summary - U.S. President Trump indicated that the U.S. would manage Venezuela for years and exploit its oil reserves, proposing a military budget increase from 1 trillion to 1.5 trillion USD for FY 2027 [5] - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. rose to 208,000, slightly below market expectations, while the previous figure was revised up to 200,000 [5] - Codelco's chairman stated that the company achieved its copper production growth target for 2025, with a slight increase of 0.4% to 1.333 million tons, despite a fatal accident at its largest mine [5] Smelting and Import Insights - Fitch's BMI maintained its 2026 copper average price forecast at 11,000 USD/ton, citing supply tightness and green transition demand as key price supports, although weak real estate in China may offset some demand growth [6] - Global refined copper production growth is expected to slow to 1.1% in 2026, with potential market shortages influenced by the recovery progress of major mines [6] Consumption Outlook - S&P Global forecasts a 50% increase in global copper demand by 2040, reaching 42 million tons, driven by AI and defense industries, with a significant need for copper in electrification [7] - The report warns of potential annual supply shortages exceeding 10 million tons if recycling and mining do not improve [7] Inventory and Warehouse Data - LME warehouse stocks decreased by 2,850 tons to 141,075 tons, while SHFE stocks increased by 12,211 tons to 108,685 tons [7] - As of January 8, domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 273,800 tons, an increase of 16,200 tons from the previous week [7] Strategy Recommendations - The current copper market is characterized by tight supply and increased exports due to external premiums, while demand remains relatively weak due to high prices and holiday factors [8] - A cautious bullish strategy is recommended, with buying suggested in the range of 98,000 CNY/ton to 98,500 CNY/ton [8]