不锈钢：原料端消息面扰动 盘面快速调整

Core Viewpoint - The stainless steel market is experiencing fluctuations influenced by nickel prices, with a notable decline in both spot and futures prices due to changing expectations in the nickel ore supply chain [3] Supply - In December, the estimated crude steel production from 43 domestic stainless steel mills was 3.2671 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 226,000 tons (6.47%) and a year-on-year decrease of 5.09% [2] - The production forecast for January is 3.327 million tons, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 1.83% and a year-on-year increase of 16.27% [2] - The 300 series production is expected to decrease by 2.5% month-on-month but increase by 9.78% year-on-year [2] Inventory - Social inventory is decreasing, but high inventory levels remain a significant concern, with warehouse receipts continuing to trend downward [2] - As of January 9, social inventory for the 300 series in Wuxi and Foshan was 457,400 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 15,000 tons [2] - Stainless steel futures inventory was 47,267 tons on January 7, down 195 tons week-on-week [2] Market Dynamics - The stainless steel market is seeing a bearish trend, heavily influenced by nickel price fluctuations and market sentiment [3] - The Indonesian Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources did not provide clear guidance on nickel ore quotas for 2026, leading to uncertainty in supply expectations [3] - Nickel iron prices have risen significantly, with mainstream transaction prices around 950 yuan per nickel, supported by tightening raw material expectations [3] - The chromium iron market remains firm due to limited resource circulation and a slowdown in supply growth [3] Overall Market Outlook - The supply pressure is easing slightly, but demand remains weak due to seasonal factors and financial pressures on downstream enterprises [3] - The overall market sentiment is characterized by a strong cost support from raw materials and weak demand, leading to a potential for short-term price adjustments [3]