钢材：库存进入季节性累库拐点 钢价维持震荡走势

Core Viewpoint - The steel market is experiencing a seasonal downturn in demand, with production increasing but inventory levels rising, leading to a weaker price environment for steel products [5]. Supply - Steel production has rebounded, with pig iron output increasing by 2% to 2.295 million tons. The total output of five major steel products rose by 3.4 thousand tons to 8.186 million tons, including rebar up by 2.8 thousand tons to 1.91 million tons and hot-rolled coil up by 1 thousand tons to 3.055 million tons [2]. Demand - Seasonal demand for steel has significantly weakened, with total apparent demand for five major steel products decreasing by 44 thousand tons to 7.97 million tons. Rebar demand fell by 25.5 thousand tons to 1.75 million tons, while hot-rolled coil demand remained relatively stable with a decrease of 2.4 thousand tons to 3.08 million tons [3]. Inventory - Inventory levels are entering a seasonal accumulation phase, with rebar inventory increasing by 16 thousand tons to 4.38 million tons, while hot-rolled coil inventory decreased by 2.8 thousand tons to 368 thousand tons. The total inventory of five major steel products rose by 22 thousand tons to 12.54 million tons [4]. Price and Profitability - Steel prices have fluctuated, remaining weaker than coking coal and iron ore prices. Current profit margins are highest for steel billets, followed by rebar and hot-rolled coil. The market is expected to see seasonal accumulation of steel inventory leading up to the Spring Festival, with rebar prices fluctuating in the range of 3000-3200 yuan per ton and hot-rolled coil prices in the range of 3150-3350 yuan per ton [1][5].