欧盟激进、美沙反对、中国务实！IMO净零表决延期背后的航运规则争夺战

Core Viewpoint - The International Maritime Organization (IMO) has postponed the vote on the net-zero framework for global shipping emissions by one year, indicating a slowdown in the decarbonization process of the shipping industry and reflecting complex negotiations among various stakeholders [1][2]. Group 1: Delay of the Net-Zero Framework - The IMO approved a draft net-zero framework in April 2025, aiming for the shipping industry to achieve net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, but the voting scheduled for October 2025 has been delayed by one year due to opposition from multiple countries, particularly the United States [2][3]. - The delay is attributed to procedural disputes and differing positions among developed and developing countries regarding emission responsibilities, cost-sharing, and technological pathways [2][6]. Group 2: Compliance System and Costs - The net-zero framework draft applies to ocean-going vessels over 5,000 gross tons, which account for over 85% of global shipping emissions, and includes stringent greenhouse gas intensity standards and a carbon pricing mechanism [3][5]. - The compliance system establishes annual targets for reducing greenhouse gas intensity (GFI) and introduces remedial units for vessels exceeding emissions limits, with prices set at $100 per ton for Tier 1 units and $380 per ton for Tier 2 units [4][5]. Group 3: Stakeholder Dynamics - The negotiations surrounding the net-zero framework have evolved into a deeper contest over the future rules of global shipping and the competitiveness of green economies, with developed countries seeking to leverage their technological advantages [6][7]. - Developing countries, represented by China, advocate for a balanced approach that recognizes different developmental stages and emphasizes the need for technology transfer and capacity building to ensure equitable participation in the green transition [7][8]. Group 4: Strategic Implications of the Delay - The postponement of the vote reflects the fragility of global climate governance consensus and may lead to uncertainty in investment decisions related to low-carbon fuel supply chains and vessel technology upgrades [8]. - The outcome of the net-zero framework will depend on resolving key issues in the coming year, including the willingness of developed countries to support developing nations and the ability of developing countries to propose constructive transition plans [8].