加元偏强震荡政策原油成关键

Core Viewpoint - The USD/CAD exchange rate is expected to maintain a strong oscillating trend until January 9, 2026, influenced by the divergence in monetary policies between the US and Canada, changes in oil supply expectations, and differences in economic growth rates [1][2]. Monetary Policy Divergence - The divergence in monetary policy is the primary driver of the exchange rate. In 2025, the Federal Reserve cut rates by a total of 75 basis points, bringing the federal funds rate to a range of 3.5%-3.75% by year-end, with expectations of two more cuts in 2026. In contrast, the Bank of Canada was more aggressive, cutting rates by 100 basis points over four occasions, ending the year at 2.25%, with no further cuts expected before March 2026 [1][2]. Economic Growth Disparities - Economic growth differences and oil supply expectations exacerbate exchange rate volatility, creating a "policy support" versus "commodity suppression" dynamic. The OECD forecasts US GDP growth at 1.6% for 2025 and 1.5% for 2026, while Canada is projected to grow by 1% in 2025 and slightly increase to 1.1% in 2026. Both countries face slowing growth pressures, but Canada is more vulnerable due to its high dependency on US exports [2]. Oil Supply Sensitivity - The Canadian dollar, as a commodity currency, is highly sensitive to oil supply and demand dynamics. Recent signals from the US regarding the potential re-importation of Venezuelan oil have raised concerns about increased competition for Canadian oil demand, significantly suppressing the performance of the Canadian dollar [2]. Geopolitical and Global Risk Factors - Geopolitical issues and global risk sentiment are currently influencing exchange rate movements. Concerns over the return of Venezuelan oil have led to a risk-averse stance towards the Canadian dollar, providing temporary upward momentum for the USD/CAD exchange rate. However, the potential for further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve limits the upside for the dollar [2]. Outlook for 2026 - The USD/CAD exchange rate is likely to remain in a high oscillating trend, with three core variables influencing this outlook: uncertainty in the Federal Reserve's rate-cutting pace, changes in oil supply dynamics, and differences in the monetary policy paths of the US and Canada. Additionally, potential changes in the Federal Reserve chairmanship and reviews of the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement could trigger short-term volatility [3].