英科医疗(300677)：手套行业回暖 龙头份额提升可期

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that Yingke Medical has become a global leader in the disposable glove industry, with a diversified business layout and significant global advantages. The company has rapidly expanded since its transformation to self-production in 2009, with core products, nitrile and PVC gloves, contributing over 90% of its revenue. Overseas revenue accounts for about 85%, serving over 15,000 customers across 150 countries and regions [1] - The disposable glove industry is experiencing a supply-demand optimization, with a dual production center model in "China + Southeast Asia" and the US and Europe as core consumer markets. Nitrile gloves are expected to continue leading in growth and penetration rates. After a period of destocking and price wars from 2022 to 2023, outdated capacities are being eliminated, allowing Chinese manufacturers to gain market share [1][2] - The company’s core competitiveness stems from multi-dimensional cost barriers and global operational capabilities, including automated production lines and self-supply of nitrile latex. This results in significantly lower costs compared to domestic and international peers. Despite the impact of US tariff policies starting in 2025, the company is successfully shifting its production capacity to non-US markets, maintaining full production and sales [2] Group 2 - The investment outlook suggests that the supply-demand dynamics in the disposable glove industry are likely to continue improving, combined with the company's capacity expansion and production line upgrades. Cost control and profitability are expected to enhance further. As a leading enterprise, the company is poised to increase its global market share through economies of scale, full industry chain layout, and global channel networks [3] - Revenue forecasts for the company from 2025 to 2027 are projected at 9.99 billion, 12.01 billion, and 13.88 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 4.9%, 20.2%, and 15.6%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 1.24 billion, 1.70 billion, and 2.01 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of -15.3%, 37.1%, and 18.1% [3] - The absolute and relative valuation indicates a price range for the company between 43.99 and 48.50 yuan, corresponding to a market capitalization range of 28.8 billion to 31.8 billion yuan, suggesting a premium of 12-23% over the current stock price, maintaining an "outperform" rating [3]