The Outlook of Reduced Brazil Sugar Exports Lifts Sugar Prices

Group 1: Sugar Price Movements - March NY world sugar 11 is up +0.25 (+1.69%) and March London ICE white sugar 5 is up +5.40 (+1.27%) due to recent strength in the Brazilian real, which discourages export sales from Brazil's sugar producers [1] - Sugar prices fell to 2-week lows last Friday on signs of stronger sugar output in India, with Indian sugar production for 2025-26 jumping 25% y/y to 11.90 MMT [2] - NY sugar matched a 2.5-month high on expectations of smaller future sugar supplies from Brazil, with consulting firm Safras & Mercado projecting a -3.91% decline in Brazil's sugar production for 2026/27 [4] Group 2: Indian Sugar Production and Exports - The India Sugar Mill Association (ISMA) raised its 2025/26 sugar production estimate to 31 MMT, up +18.8% y/y, while cutting its estimate for sugar used for ethanol production to 3.4 MMT, potentially boosting sugar exports [2] - India's food ministry announced it would allow mills to export 1.5 MMT of sugar in the 2025/26 season to alleviate domestic supply glut [3] Group 3: Brazilian Sugar Production Outlook - Conab raised its Brazil 2025/26 sugar production estimate to 45 MMT, indicating a bearish outlook for prices due to record sugar output [5] - Unica reported that Brazil's cumulative 2025-26 Center-South sugar output rose by +1.1% y/y to 39.904 MMT, with the ratio of cane crushed for sugar increasing to 51.12% in 2025/26 from 48.34% in 2024/25 [5]