就在今天！特朗普关税案迎关键裁决，如何影响美国经济及股债？

Group 1 - The U.S. Supreme Court is expected to rule on the legality of tariffs imposed by President Trump, which could significantly impact trade policy and the U.S. fiscal situation [1] - The ruling will focus on whether the Trump administration had the authority to impose tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) and if the government must refund tariffs if deemed illegal [1] - Treasury Secretary Yellen anticipates a compromise ruling, suggesting that the government could still collect tariffs at similar levels even if it loses the case [1] Group 2 - If the tariffs are invalidated, it could negatively affect U.S. industrial repatriation plans and fiscal health, potentially raising interest rates, while benefiting corporate profits by lowering input costs [2] - The probability of the Supreme Court supporting the current tariff policy is only 28%, indicating a strong expectation of a ruling against the tariffs [2] - The Treasury Department projects tariff revenues of approximately $195 billion for FY2025 and $62 billion for FY2026 to date [2] Group 3 - The upcoming ruling is seen as a significant test for U.S. equity and bond markets, with potential long-term uncertainty if tariffs are overturned [3] - Analysts predict that if tariffs are lifted, corporate profit margins may increase, boosting the stock market, while complicating the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [3] - A potential economic stimulus from halting tariffs could exacerbate the government's budget deficit, putting pressure on U.S. debt [3] Group 4 - Wells Fargo's chief equity strategist forecasts a 2.4% increase in EBITDA for S&P 500 companies in 2026 if the Supreme Court overturns the tariff policy, likely leading to higher stock prices [4] - Companies heavily reliant on imported goods, such as apparel and toy manufacturers, are expected to benefit the most from tariff removal [5] - Financial institutions may also gain from increased consumer spending, along with industrial manufacturing and transportation sectors benefiting from potential economic boosts [5] Group 5 - Conversely, sectors benefiting from trade protectionism, such as materials and commodities, may underperform if tariffs are lifted [6] - Bond traders are preparing for market volatility, with U.S. Treasury bonds having risen over 6% last year, marking the best performance since 2020 [6] - The removal of tariffs could reignite fiscal concerns, leading to a rise in long-term yields, although the impact is expected to be limited as the Trump administration may seek alternative legal avenues to restore most tariffs [6]