Core Viewpoint - The solar photovoltaic (PV) industry faces significant challenges following an antitrust warning regarding the consolidation of polysilicon production capacity, raising uncertainties about the future of self-regulatory actions in the industry [1][6]. Group 1: Antitrust Warning and Industry Response - On January 6, major polysilicon companies were summoned by the State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR) due to allegations of price manipulation under the guise of industry self-regulation [1]. - The SAMR issued clear rectification requirements, prohibiting agreements on capacity, utilization rates, production volumes, and sales prices among companies [1][4]. - The meeting highlighted multiple complaints received since July 2025, accusing companies of controlling production and market segmentation based on investment ratios [1][4]. Group 2: Market Impact and Price Fluctuations - Following the news, polysilicon futures contracts hit the daily limit down, with a 9% drop on January 8, while major polysilicon stocks experienced declines, with GCL-Poly Energy falling over 7% [2]. - The average prices for polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and modules are projected to increase by 38.9%, 2.2%, 0.4%, and 2.3% respectively by November 2025 [2]. - Despite a slowdown in market transactions, many polysilicon companies raised new order prices to over 65,000 yuan per ton, significantly above the market average [2]. Group 3: Industry Consolidation and Future Outlook - The establishment of Beijing Guanghe Qiancheng Technology Co., aimed at consolidating polysilicon resources, has raised concerns about potential monopolistic practices [3][5]. - The platform is designed to operate under a dual-track model, referencing successful experiences from other industries to stabilize prices [3]. - Industry leaders emphasize the need for a balanced profit distribution across the entire solar value chain, as current high profits in polysilicon are unsustainable if downstream sectors continue to incur losses [3][5]. Group 4: Challenges Ahead - The self-regulatory actions in the industry are now facing unprecedented challenges, with the cancellation of monthly meetings aimed at addressing overcapacity and price control until rectification measures are completed [5][6]. - The uncertainty surrounding the path forward for coordinated production control and the exit of outdated capacities is increasing, complicating the industry's efforts to stabilize [6].