有色金属大面积“跳水”，长江铜价续跌1940元/吨，长期结构性牛市逻辑依旧稳固！

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metals market is experiencing significant differentiation due to macroeconomic policies and supply-demand dynamics, with copper and zinc under pressure from weak demand, while aluminum shows signs of rebound, and nickel, tin, and lead are being re-evaluated due to supply changes [1]. Group 1: Copper - Copper prices are under pressure primarily due to weak demand, exacerbated by macroeconomic factors such as global stock market volatility and geopolitical risks [2]. - Supply disruptions, such as strikes in Chilean copper mines, provide some support, but actual consumption in China remains weak, leading to a slowdown in order growth and an accumulation of social inventory [2][3]. - Short-term outlook suggests continued high-level fluctuations in copper prices, with potential for long-term demand growth in emerging sectors like AI and electric vehicles, pending improvements in demand signals [2][3]. Group 2: Aluminum - The aluminum market faces pressure from macroeconomic disturbances, with conflicting employment data in the U.S. raising doubts about economic stability [3]. - Domestic demand is impacted by seasonal effects and environmental production limits, leading to a decline in operating rates among aluminum processing enterprises [3]. - Short-term aluminum prices may remain optimistic, but attention is needed on post-Spring Festival recovery expectations and macroeconomic stabilization [3]. Group 3: Zinc - The zinc market is dominated by bearish sentiment, with a strong U.S. dollar and declining global stock markets contributing to price drops [4]. - Weak demand persists, with downstream consumers only maintaining essential purchases, leading to a mismatch in supply and demand [4]. - Short-term expectations indicate continued weak performance for zinc prices, with significant pressure around the 24,500 yuan/ton level [4]. Group 4: Lead - The lead market is characterized by weak supply and demand dynamics, with a strong dollar and stock market declines affecting risk appetite [5]. - Supply remains marginally loose due to stable primary lead production and increased imports, while demand from the lead-acid battery sector is weak [5]. - Short-term lead prices are expected to remain weak, influenced by macroeconomic pressures and overseas supply, although low inventory levels provide some support [5]. Group 5: Nickel - Nickel prices are under pressure from high inventory levels and weak demand in the stainless steel and new energy battery sectors [6]. - The market is currently experiencing a downward adjustment, with a need for new driving factors to support prices [6]. - Long-term balance in the nickel market will depend on the recovery of the stainless steel industry and the penetration rate of new energy applications [6]. Group 6: Tin - The tin market is seeing a shift in supply dynamics, with improved supply from Myanmar and no escalation in the situation in the Democratic Republic of Congo [7]. - Demand is showing a split, with traditional electronics experiencing seasonal weakness, while new sectors are not compensating for this decline [7]. - Short-term tin prices may enter a phase of adjustment, with close monitoring of supply recovery and demand signals necessary [7]. Group 7: Market Strategy - The macroeconomic landscape requires attention to signals from the Federal Reserve regarding monetary policy, geopolitical risks, and economic data from China [8]. - In the industrial sector, strategies should focus on short-term fluctuations in copper and aluminum, while monitoring long-term demand and supply disruptions [10]. - For nickel and tin, caution is advised regarding high inventory levels and supply recovery expectations, with a focus on waiting for substantial demand improvements [11].