今日基本金属为何全线下跌？ 短期内金属行情能否快速反弹？

Core Viewpoint - The overall market for basic metals is under pressure due to a strong US dollar and shifting macroeconomic sentiment, with aluminum being the only metal to show a slight increase in price [4]. Group 1: Price Movements - Copper prices have significantly retreated, with 1 copper reported at 100,680 yuan/ton, down 1,940 yuan from the previous day, primarily due to macroeconomic sentiment and adjustments in expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [2]. - Aluminum prices have shown resilience, with A00 aluminum at 24,030 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan, supported by a clear long-term supply-demand structure and relatively low social inventory levels [2]. - Zinc prices have slightly weakened, with 0 and 1 zinc at 24,050 yuan/ton and 23,950 yuan/ton respectively, both down 150 yuan, reflecting concerns over weak demand in traditional sectors [2]. - Lead prices have also declined, with 1 lead at 17,350 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan, amid a lack of consumer demand and a cautious market atmosphere [2]. - Tin prices have corrected from previous highs, with 1 tin at 351,000 yuan/ton, down 2,000 yuan, influenced by macroeconomic sentiment and uncertainty regarding semiconductor demand recovery [3]. - Nickel prices have seen a significant drop, with 1 nickel at 143,850 yuan/ton, down 6,200 yuan, due to its sensitivity to changes in the dollar and interest rate expectations, alongside concerns over oversupply [3]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Influences - The market is currently experiencing a cautious sentiment influenced by a strong dollar and technical adjustments following previous price increases, with aluminum standing out due to its strong fundamental logic [4]. - Investors are advised to monitor the upcoming US non-farm payroll data, which could guide short-term market direction [4]. - The potential for a short-term rebound in metal prices may arise from factors such as weaker-than-expected non-farm data, which could reignite expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts and lead to a dollar decline [5]. - Technical adjustments following index rebalancing may alleviate some selling pressure in the market [6]. - Geopolitical tensions could trigger safe-haven demand, potentially impacting metal prices [7].