机械ETF（516960）盘中涨超1.3%，储能电池行业转型支撑估值逻辑

Group 1 - The mechanical ETF (516960) rose over 1.3% on January 9, supported by the transformation of the energy storage battery industry, which underpins valuation logic [1] - The lithium industry has seen a significant improvement in supply-demand fundamentals after three years of adjustment, with prices rebounding from below 60,000 yuan/ton to above 130,000 yuan/ton [1] - The cobalt industry is affected by the Democratic Republic of Congo's export quota policy, which will reduce the export quota to 96,600 tons in 2025 (a 56% year-on-year decrease), leading to a potential shift towards a tight balance in supply and demand in the medium to long term [1] - The rare earth permanent magnet sector is experiencing an ongoing optimization of the supply structure, driven by the implementation of the Rare Earth Management Regulations, which promotes industry consolidation [1] - The demand for new energy vehicles has increased to 42%, with new application scenarios such as energy-saving motors and humanoid robots further opening up growth space [1] Group 2 - The energy storage battery is becoming a new growth driver for lithium demand, with domestic shipments expected to reach 580 GWh in 2025 (a 75% year-on-year increase), as economic viability gradually becomes apparent under policy support [1] - The industrialization process of solid-state batteries is accelerating, with expectations of small-scale vehicle deployment by 2027, and new technological routes may enhance lithium consumption efficiency [1]