2025年12月挖掘机销量同比增近两成，内外需共振下景气度有望延续

Group 1: Excavator Sales and Market Trends - In December 2025, a total of 23,095 excavators were sold, representing a year-on-year increase of 19.2%, with domestic sales of 10,331 units (up 10.9%) and exports of 12,764 units (up 26.9%) [1][5] - For the entire year of 2025, excavator sales reached 235,257 units, a 17% increase year-on-year, with domestic sales of 118,518 units (up 17.9%) and exports of 116,739 units (up 16.1%) [1][5] - Excavators are considered a "barometer" of the national economy, influenced by changes in downstream real estate, infrastructure demand, and equipment replacement cycles [1][5] Group 2: Economic Policy and Investment - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the importance of expanding domestic demand to stabilize economic growth, proposing to increase central budget investment and optimize the use of local government special bonds [2][6] - The fiscal deficit rate for 2025 is expected to remain around 4.0%, with a deficit scale of approximately 5.9 trillion yuan, an increase of about 200 billion yuan from the previous year [2][6] - The issuance of special long-term bonds is projected to reach 1.5 trillion yuan, an increase of 200 billion yuan from the previous year, to support key projects [2][6] Group 3: Industry Outlook and Demand Drivers - Analysts predict that fiscal policies will stabilize investment through increased funding and special bond quotas, working in tandem with consumption policies to boost domestic demand [3][7] - The demand for excavators is entering a rational growth phase, driven by the government's push for the replacement of old equipment and the ongoing infrastructure needs in emerging markets [3][7] - The export growth trend for China's construction machinery is expected to continue, supported by the Belt and Road Initiative and increasing domestic demand for small excavators driven by agricultural and municipal needs [3][7][8] Group 4: Challenges and Opportunities - Despite potential trade friction risks, most major construction machinery manufacturers have limited exposure to the U.S. market, keeping risks manageable [4][8] - The domestic sales growth rate for excavators is anticipated to continue rising due to counter-cyclical fiscal policies and an upward industry cycle [4][8] - Overall, the industry faces both opportunities and challenges in 2025, with a greater potential for growth than risks [4][8]