The Outlook for Reduced Brazil Sugar Exports Lifts Prices

Price Movements - March NY world sugar 11 closed up +0.22 (+1.49%) and March London ICE white sugar 5 closed up +4.10 (+0.97%) on Wednesday [1] - Sugar prices reached a 2.5-month high last Monday due to expectations of reduced future sugar supplies from Brazil [2] Supply Dynamics - Brazil's sugar production for 2026/27 is expected to decline by -3.91% to 41.8 million metric tons (MMT) from 43.5 MMT in 2025/26, with exports projected to fall -11% year-on-year to 30 MMT [2] - Indian sugar production for 2025-26 increased by 25% year-on-year to 11.90 MMT, prompting a revision of the total production estimate to 31 MMT, up +18.8% year-on-year [3] - Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production estimate was raised to 45 MMT from 44.5 MMT, with cumulative sugar output through November rising by +1.1% year-on-year to 39.904 MMT [5] Export Policies - India's government may permit additional sugar exports to alleviate a domestic supply glut, allowing mills to export 1.5 MMT in the 2025/26 season [4] - The Indian Sugar Mill Association (ISMA) reduced its estimate for sugar used for ethanol production, potentially increasing sugar exports [3]