12月非农揭晓在即！黄金高位震荡，日元维持弱势

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll report for December is expected to shift market focus back to economic data and interest rate outlooks, following a period of geopolitical concerns [2][17]. Employment Data Summary - The U.S. job market shows signs of weakness, with November job openings dropping to 7.15 million, the lowest in 14 months, resulting in a ratio of 0.91 job openings per unemployed person, the lowest since March 2021 [3][17]. - The ADP report indicates that 41,000 private sector jobs were added in December, which is above the previous value but slightly below expectations, with four instances of negative growth since June [3][17]. - Initial jobless claims rose slightly to 208,000, up from 200,000, although the four-week average has significantly decreased [3][17]. Market Expectations - The market anticipates an addition of 60,000 jobs in the upcoming non-farm report, down from a previous value of 64,000, with the unemployment rate expected to decrease from 4.6% to 4.5% [3][17]. - Hourly wage growth is projected to rise to 3.6% [3][17]. Federal Reserve Perspective - The Federal Reserve acknowledges the downward risks in the job market, maintaining a forecast for one rate cut this year, although there are significant divisions among market participants [5][19]. - The interest rate market is leaning towards a more dovish stance, betting on two rate cuts this year, with an 86% probability that the January meeting will not result in a rate change [5][19]. Market Reactions - Traders are adopting a cautious approach ahead of the non-farm report, with both stock markets and precious metals slowing their upward momentum [5][19]. - If the employment data falls short of expectations, it could heighten rate cut anticipations, benefiting risk assets like stocks and cryptocurrencies, while gold and silver may aim for historical highs [5][19]. - Conversely, a strong report could lead to a rebound in the U.S. dollar index [5][19].