Nat-Gas Prices Surge as US Weather Forecasts Turn Colder

Group 1: Natural Gas Prices and Demand - February natural gas prices surged by +5.22%, closing up +0.175, as colder weather forecasts for the Midwest and East Coast are expected to boost heating demand [1] - The Edison Electric Institute reported a +6.7% year-over-year increase in US electricity output for the week ending January 3, reaching 82,732 GWh, which supports higher gas prices [2] Group 2: Natural Gas Production and Inventory - The EIA raised its forecast for 2025 US natural gas production to 107.74 bcf/day, indicating a bearish outlook for prices as production is near record highs [3] - US dry gas production was reported at 112.6 bcf/day, a +10.9% year-over-year increase, while gas demand decreased by -26.9% year-over-year to 89.5 bcf/day [4] - Recent EIA reports indicated a smaller-than-expected draw in natural gas inventories, with a decline of -38 bcf compared to a consensus of -51 bcf, suggesting ample supplies [5] Group 3: Drilling Activity - The number of active US natural gas drilling rigs decreased by -2 to 125 rigs, remaining below the 2.25-year high of 130 rigs set in late November [6]