东海期货宏观数据观察：12月CPI持续回升，消费向好

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that China's December CPI increased by 0.8% year-on-year, below the expected 0.9%, while the PPI decreased by 1.9%, better than the expected -2.0% [1][26][40] - December CPI's year-on-year increase is attributed to rising food prices and improved domestic supply-demand relationships, with PPI's decline narrowing due to ongoing capacity management in key industries [2][27][46] - The overall improvement in inflation is supported by the implementation of year-end policy financial tools and accelerated infrastructure projects, leading to a slight recovery in domestic demand [3][27][46] Group 2 - Food prices significantly contributed to the CPI increase, with food inflation rising from 0.2% to 1.1%, impacting CPI by approximately 0.17 percentage points [9][34] - Core CPI remained stable at a high of 1.2%, driven by increased consumer demand and rising prices of gold jewelry, which surged by 68.5% [10][35] - The PPI's year-on-year decline of 1.9% reflects a narrowing of price drops in several sectors, including coal mining and lithium battery manufacturing, indicating a positive trend in market competition [15][40][41] Group 3 - The domestic demand remains weak, but the ongoing capacity management in key industries is expected to support price increases in related sectors, leading to a gradual narrowing of PPI declines [22][46] - The anticipated recovery in CPI and PPI is expected to enhance corporate earnings, providing support for stock market fundamentals, while also raising long-term inflation expectations that could negatively impact bond prices [23][47]