Western Securities(SZ:002673) 智通财经网·2026-01-09 06:24Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the long filament chain's prosperity is expected to rise in 2025, with specific operating rates for PX, PTA, and long filament projected at 84%, 76%, and 89% respectively, showing year-on-year changes of +1.4, -3.1, and +2.7 percentage points [1][3] - The PX/PTA/long filament industry has a high concentration, with CR8 concentration rates of 62.43% for PTA and 68.58% for long filament, indicating a potential for increased profitability as the industry structure improves [1][4] - The new capacity for PX, PTA, and long filament is expected to slow down, with projected production in 2026 being 500, 0, and 315 million tons respectively, corresponding to growth rates of approximately 11%, 0%, and 7% [3][4] Group 2 - The macro conditions for global refining are gradually improving, suggesting a potential turning point for the petrochemical industry, with significant recovery in overseas refining profits [2] - The average gross profit margin for major refining companies is projected to rebound, with a TTM average gross margin of 11.5% in Q3 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.6 percentage points and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.9 percentage points [2] - The expected increase in profitability for companies such as Dongfang Shenghong, Rongsheng Petrochemical, and Sinopec is significant, with profit elasticities of 732%, 115%, and 50% respectively, based on a projected exchange rate of 6.8 [2] Group 3 - The "anti-involution" policy is anticipated to drive profitability growth in the PTA and long filament sectors, with potential profit increases of 100 and 200 yuan per ton for PTA and long filament respectively in 2026 [4] - The projected profit growth for companies like Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, and Dongfang Shenghong in 2026 is estimated at 17.1, 10.6, and 11.2 billion yuan respectively, indicating significant profit elasticity [4] - Recommended stocks to watch include major refining companies such as Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, and Sinopec, as well as long filament companies like Xinfengming and Tongkun [5]