化工日报：聚酯检修计划陆续出台 PTA走弱

Core Viewpoint - The market anticipates an oversupply of oil by early 2026 due to the U.S. declaring it will "market" Venezuelan crude oil, while progress in negotiations between Ukraine and Russia may lead to the end of the conflict in the first half of 2026, causing a short-term drop in oil prices [1] PX Market Summary - PX prices have recently surged to seasonal highs, supported by a favorable MX supply environment and increased overseas restart plans due to improved profitability [1] - Domestic and international PX facilities are operating smoothly, with expectations of increased supply despite some fluctuations in factory operations [1] - Upcoming maintenance plans for PX in Q2 next year may support prices, but risks of supply increases and declining polyester demand are emerging [1] TA Market Summary - TA main contract spot basis is at -48 CNY/ton, with PTA spot processing fees at 390 CNY/ton, reflecting a positive change [2] - PTA processing fees are expected to improve in the medium term as the capacity expansion cycle ends, with a focus on potential device restarts due to recent improvements in processing fees [2] - Polyester operating rates are at 90.8%, but there are signs of weakening demand, with potential for accelerated production cuts in January [2] PF and PR Market Summary - PF production profits are at -4 CNY/ton, with weak downstream demand leading to increased inventory [3] - Bottle chip processing fees are at 458 CNY/ton, with supply recovering but short-term fluctuations expected due to planned maintenance [3] Strategy Overview - The strategy for PX/PTA/PF/PR is neutral, with expectations of increased supply and potential price corrections in the short term [4] - Monitoring of downstream polyester load changes and financial movements is crucial, as the market faces risks from increased supply and declining demand [4] - The medium-term outlook for PTA processing fees is positive, with a focus on device restart situations as the market stabilizes [4]