淡水泉陶冬：2026年，系好安全带，资产为王

Core Viewpoint - The global economy is entering a delicate phase in 2026, characterized by asset inflation and geopolitical uncertainties, with a focus on the concept of "asset supremacy" as a survival strategy [4][14]. Economic Trends - The current global economic shape is described as "K-shaped," indicating a divergence where high-income groups benefit from asset markets while low-income groups face rising living costs, leading to a "no job growth" scenario despite strong macroeconomic indicators [5][6]. - This K-shaped development is expected to deepen in 2026, with political extremism becoming normalized as economic growth fails to benefit the lower strata of society [6]. Federal Reserve Dynamics - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to undergo significant leadership changes in 2026, which may lead to a shift in policy thinking, particularly under political pressure for lower interest rates [7][8]. - There is a possibility that the Fed may maintain or even restart quantitative easing to address fiscal deficits and prevent a bond market collapse, indicating a departure from traditional monetary policy [8]. AI Sector Insights - The AI sector is at a critical juncture, with concerns about overinvestment and the sustainability of business models. A significant adjustment in the AI industry is likely in 2026, transitioning from a focus on high-level infrastructure to practical applications [9][10]. - The differences in AI development paths between the U.S. and China are notable, with the U.S. focusing on stock market-driven models and China leveraging government support for open-source applications [10]. Fiscal Capitalism Observations - The global economy is shifting towards "fiscal capitalism," where government fiscal outputs drive economic activity, leading to excessive credit issuance and a loss of trust in fiat currencies, as evidenced by the rise in gold and silver prices [11]. - Commodities like gold and silver are expected to maintain their value due to structural long-term trends, with silver benefiting from industrial demand linked to AI and data center construction [11]. Geopolitical Landscape - Geopolitical risks are expected to shift rather than diminish, with a focus on "Western Hemisphereism" under Trump's potential return to power, which may lead to a reconfiguration of U.S. foreign policy and energy strategies [12]. Investment Strategy - The overarching investment strategy for 2026 emphasizes the importance of holding "hard currencies" and core assets that can withstand credit risks and technological cycles, as traditional savings may not keep pace with inflation [14].