专家：特朗普3年内难实现对委石油企图

Core Insights - The article discusses the challenges and uncertainties surrounding the U.S. interest in Venezuelan oil, highlighting that achieving control over these resources within three years is unlikely due to the unstable social environment in Venezuela [1] Group 1: U.S. Interest in Venezuelan Oil - President Trump mentioned "oil" 26 times during a press conference, indicating a strong interest in Venezuelan oil resources, which are the largest proven reserves globally [1] - Experts suggest that the U.S. may not be able to monopolize Venezuelan oil, drawing parallels to the situation in Iraq post-Saddam, where the U.S. did not gain exclusive access to oil resources [1] Group 2: Investment Risks - U.S. oil companies are hesitant to invest heavily in Venezuela due to significant risks and uncertainties, making it difficult to predict when investments would become profitable [1] - The need for a stable social environment for oil infrastructure investment is emphasized, with experts predicting that Trump's ambitions regarding Venezuelan oil are unlikely to materialize within the next three years [1] Group 3: China's Position - Venezuela is a key partner for China in oil production and supply chains, with substantial Chinese investments in exploration and refining [1] - In 2025, Venezuelan oil is expected to account for 4% of China's oil imports, indicating its importance despite the small percentage [1] - Experts note that Venezuela's oil resources are crucial for ensuring China's energy supply chain security and promoting the internationalization of the Renminbi [1]