山东猪价上涨，反弹能持续多久，后市走势成谜？

Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in pig prices in Shandong Province is attributed to a decline in pig slaughter numbers and rising demand during the New Year holiday season [1] Group 1: Price Trends - The average price for fat pigs in the first week of the new year was 12.57 yuan per kilogram, showing a year-on-year decrease of 21.97% but a week-on-week increase of 6.44% [1] - The average price for pork in the province was 22.38 yuan per kilogram, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 20.30% and a week-on-week recovery of 3.85% [1] - The average price for piglets currently stands at 21.65 yuan per kilogram, which is a year-on-year decrease of 31.23% but a week-on-week increase of 1.17% [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The primary factors influencing the recent rise in pig prices include a reduction in pig slaughter and increased demand due to the New Year holiday [1] - The market is expected to maintain a stable yet slightly declining price trend, with narrow fluctuations anticipated [1] - Despite the recovery in pig prices, the supply side still faces challenges such as excess production capacity and concentrated slaughtering [1] Group 3: Consumption Patterns - Post-New Year, fresh pork demand is expected to weaken, leading to a potential reduction in orders from slaughter enterprises [2] - Changes in consumer preferences are impacting pork consumption, with a growing demand for fresh pork and a decline in demand for high-salt, high-fat cured products [2] - The upcoming Spring Festival in mid-February may limit the immediate demand for pigs, as the peak stocking period has not yet begun [2] Group 4: Industry Recommendations - Industry stakeholders are advised to monitor the real-time impact of policies on the market, as well as factors such as the rhythm of secondary fattening, price differentials, and slaughter weights [2]