智通财经网·2026-01-09 07:05Group 1 - The aerospace and defense sector is experiencing high expectations for earnings performance as it enters the fourth quarter reporting season, with stock prices rising approximately 15% since early December, significantly outperforming the market [1] - Despite strong industry fundamentals, the recent rebound in stock prices has increased the risk of underperformance, particularly for Boeing, where investor optimism regarding free cash flow may be overblown [1] - The report indicates that investor sentiment towards Boeing's free cash flow has shifted from extreme pessimism to excessive optimism, with expectations for a rebound from around $2 billion to over $10 billion, which may not align with the bank's more cautious outlook [1] Group 2 - For GE Aerospace, the preliminary earnings guidance for 2026 is expected to align with previous management expectations, rather than exceeding them, with a projected EBIT increase of around $1 billion [2] - The initial earnings outlook for GE Aerospace is anticipated to be close to $10 billion, which may be viewed as conservative, thus limiting downside risk for the stock [2] - The bank maintains a positive outlook on Raytheon Technologies, believing the stock is undervalued despite mixed market sentiment, supported by growth in Collins Aerospace and potential for margin improvement [2] Group 3 - The bank has adjusted target prices for most companies in the sector to reflect recent re-ratings, expressing a relative preference for Raytheon Technologies over Boeing and GE Aerospace ahead of earnings announcements [3]