苯乙烯开工持续上行 盘面继续上行阻力较大

Core Viewpoint - Styrene futures are experiencing a strong fluctuation, with the main contract reaching a peak of 6903.00 yuan and currently trading at 6878.00 yuan, reflecting a 0.73% increase. The market outlook remains cautious with varying opinions from different institutions on future price movements [1]. Group 1: New Lake Futures - Styrene continues to face significant upward resistance, suggesting a preference for a wait-and-see approach [1]. - The closing price in Jiangsu for styrene is between 6880-6950 yuan/ton, an increase of 45 yuan/ton from the previous working day. Limited market news has led to a rise in futures, positively impacting the spot market [1]. - The market is currently in a destocking phase, with a projected production vacuum in the next six months and increased maintenance of facilities, indicating a potential for sustained high valuations [1]. Group 2: Minmetals Futures - The current non-integrated profit for styrene is neutral to low, with significant upward valuation potential. The supply of pure benzene remains stable, while the supply side of ethylbenzene dehydrogenation profits is declining [2]. - Styrene port inventories are significantly decreasing, and the overall operating rate in the downstream sector is showing an upward trend [2]. - It is suggested to consider going long on non-integrated styrene profits until the first quarter of next year [2]. Group 3: Guotou Anxin Futures - The downstream market is performing well, with procurement based on demand, and exports for February are still under negotiation [3]. - Production and sales of styrene are stable, with continued inventory declines, although the raw material pure benzene is accumulating, which may suppress price rebounds [3]. - The market is characterized by a tug-of-war between bullish and bearish fundamentals, leading to a continuation of price consolidation [3].