新能源车ETF（159806）收涨超1%，行业拐点与竞争格局演变引关注

Core Insights - The new energy vehicle (NEV) ETF (159806) has seen a rise of over 1%, drawing attention to the industry's turning point and evolving competitive landscape [1] Industry Overview - The NEV industry experienced an upward turning point in 2020, marked by a year-on-year increase in sales and a significant shift in penetration rates, with domestic brands gaining substantial market share [1] - The launch of the domestically produced Tesla Model 3 has reinforced industry trends, while improvements in the economic viability of the supply chain have led to a diverse range of offerings [1] Supply Chain Dynamics - From 2021 to 2022, the industry faced constraints due to chip shortages and rising battery costs, highlighting the advantages of vertically integrated companies like BYD [1] - In 2023, the supply-demand dynamics shifted, leading to a price war driven by the logic of "oil-electric substitution," with electric technology and product definition becoming core competitive factors [1] Future Projections - Competition is expected to intensify in 2024, necessitating that automakers enhance their electric technology, product definition, and brand marketing capabilities [1] - By 2025, the growth rate of NEV penetration is anticipated to slow significantly, marking the onset of a fully competitive phase in the industry, with elements of intelligence and globalization beginning to emerge [1] Profitability and Valuation - Despite the bullish market for new energy vehicles, the profitability of complete vehicles has not significantly improved due to unchanged business models, intensified competition, and profit distribution favoring upstream players [1] - Valuations are expected to rise, reflecting expectations of increased volume and price for domestic brands, although industry barriers remain low and competitive factors are easily imitated [1]