Xin Lang Cai Jing·2026-01-09 07:51Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that the National Market Supervision Administration's statement regarding the China Photovoltaic Industry Association's proposal to establish a consolidation fund and allocate industry production quotas violates antitrust laws, which negatively impacts the industry's anti-involution initiative. However, the bank views this event as an adjustment rather than a reversal due to China's push against "involution" [1][5]. Group 1 - The report anticipates multiple potential outcomes, including government agencies managing production quotas or higher-level departments setting conditions for quota exemptions [1][5]. - In the worst-case scenario, there could be chaotic involution consolidation within the industry [1][5]. - Companies with significant net cash reserves, such as Daqo New Energy (DQ.US), and the lowest cash cost producer, GCL-Poly Energy (03800), are expected to emerge as the ultimate winners in this situation [1][5]. Group 2 - Morgan Stanley maintains an "overweight" rating on Daqo New Energy with a target price of $38 and on GCL-Poly Energy with a target price of HKD 1.7 [1][5].