两天跌逾12% 多晶硅收储方案生变？

Core Viewpoint - The recent sharp decline in polysilicon futures prices is attributed to regulatory concerns regarding potential anti-monopoly risks in the industry, following a meeting with leading polysilicon companies and regulatory authorities [1][2]. Group 1: Regulatory Actions - Regulatory authorities have convened a meeting with major polysilicon companies, including Tongwei Co., Xiexin Technology, and Daqo Energy, to address anti-monopoly risks and have requested written rectification plans by January 20 [1][2]. - The core requirements of the rectification plan include prohibiting agreements on production capacity, utilization rates, sales volumes, and prices, as well as preventing any form of market division or profit distribution [1]. Group 2: Market Impact - Following the news, polysilicon futures experienced a significant drop, with the main contract closing at a limit down of 53,610 yuan per ton on January 8, and further declines on January 9, reaching around 51,800 yuan per ton, marking a drop of over 12% in two days [2]. - The market is expected to revert to a weaker fundamental trading logic, focusing on marginal cost pricing due to the regulatory developments [2]. Group 3: Industry Context - The photovoltaic industry has been under pressure, with recent government meetings emphasizing the need for industry self-discipline and the prevention of "involution" or harmful competition [2][3]. - The establishment of a new company aimed at integrating polysilicon capacity has raised concerns about potential monopolistic practices, highlighting the ongoing debate about industry consolidation [3]. Group 4: Future Considerations - The industry is at a crossroads, facing the challenge of balancing capacity reduction with maintaining fair competition, as regulatory bodies and industry stakeholders work to address these issues [4].