智通财经网·2026-01-09 08:31Core Insights - The overall retail sales of passenger cars in December 2025 reached 2.261 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 14.0% but a month-on-month increase of 1.6% [1] - Cumulative retail sales for the year amounted to 23.744 million units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.8% [1] - The wholesale growth rate for passenger cars in 2025 is projected at 8.8%, with new energy vehicles (NEVs) expected to grow at 25.2%, meeting the growth expectations set for the "14th Five-Year Plan" [1] Market Performance - December's passenger car retail sales showed a significant decline in fuel vehicles, down 30% year-on-year, while pure electric vehicle sales increased by 2.5% [2] - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in December reached 59.1%, indicating a shift towards a "new energy-dominated" market [2][11] - The retail share of domestic brands in December was 64.3%, a year-on-year increase of 2.2 percentage points [3] Production and Wholesale - Passenger car production in December was 2.791 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 4.6% [4] - December's wholesale volume for passenger cars was 2.789 million units, down 9.0% year-on-year [5] - The production of new energy vehicles in December reached 1.560 million units, a year-on-year increase of 7.6% [7] Export Trends - In December, the export of passenger cars (including complete vehicles and CKD) was 588,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 46.2% [4] - New energy vehicles accounted for 46.4% of total exports in December, up 15.6 percentage points from the previous year [4][13] - Cumulative exports of new energy vehicles for the year reached 2.422 million units, a growth of 86.2% [7] Inventory and Market Dynamics - The overall inventory in December decreased by 60,000 units, indicating proactive inventory reduction by manufacturers [6] - The market is experiencing a significant adjustment in consumer sentiment due to changes in trade-in policies and the expiration of tax exemptions for new energy vehicles [1][2] - The competitive landscape is shifting, with traditional manufacturers like Geely, Changan, and Great Wall showing improved market shares [3] Future Outlook - The January 2026 market is expected to benefit from a favorable production and sales environment, with a focus on the upcoming Spring Festival driving consumer demand [18] - The implementation of new policies aimed at promoting vehicle upgrades and trade-ins is anticipated to support market stability and growth in early 2026 [20] - The overall passenger car market is projected to maintain a stable trajectory, with a forecasted wholesale growth of 1% for 2026 [20]