兴证宏观：对日本出口管制影响几何？

Group 1 - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce announced on January 6, 2026, a ban on the export of all dual-use items to Japanese military users and any end-users that contribute to enhancing Japan's military capabilities [1][21] - The announcement follows negative remarks from Japan's right-wing cabinet regarding Taiwan, and the recent leadership of conservative politician Sanae Takaichi, who has adopted a hawkish stance towards China [1][21] - The sanctions target Japan's economic recovery, highlighting the strength of Chinese manufacturing while creating opportunities for domestic substitution [2][22] Group 2 - From a trade perspective, the impact on Japan is expected to be significantly greater than on China. The dual-use items involved in the sanctions amounted to approximately $13.7 billion, representing 9.5% of China's total exports to Japan [3][23] - Japan's reliance on imports from China is about 23.6%, and the sanctions could reduce Japan's imports by approximately 2.2 percentage points, particularly affecting high-weight categories such as electronics, machinery, and chemicals [3][23] - The sanctions reflect the vulnerabilities of the Japanese economy, which is currently facing internal economic weakness and external security challenges, prompting the Japanese government to expand its fiscal budget to support recovery [4][24] Group 3 - The sanctions may create strong demand for domestic substitution in industries previously reliant on Japanese imports, particularly in specialized machinery, precision instruments, industrial robots, and high-end chemicals [4][24][28] - China's stable supply amidst global uncertainties is expected to lead to asset revaluation opportunities, as the country continues to demonstrate a proactive strategic posture in the face of external pressures [5][24]