基础化工行业年度报告：周期成长双线轮动，持续看好成长赛道和反内卷大方向

Group 1 - The chemical industry is at the bottom of its profitability cycle, with the chemical PPI showing signs of stabilization, indicating limited further downside risk [1][6][41] - The trend of "East rising, West falling" is evident, with Chinese companies expanding their product and capacity overseas to mitigate risks and enhance market presence [1][23][35] - There is a clear trend of polarization within the industry, where only companies above the industry median can realize profits, while marginal firms face significant challenges [1][36][39] Group 2 - Supply-side constraints are expected to improve industry sentiment, leading to price and profit recovery, particularly in sectors with limited new capacity [2][43][44] - The demand side remains weak, but structural opportunities may arise from new market segments and changes in demand patterns [3][47][48] - Emerging sectors such as AI, robotics, and solid-state batteries are anticipated to drive long-term investment opportunities due to their growth potential [2][48][49] Group 3 - The chemical industry is experiencing a significant shift in its competitive landscape, with European chemical competitiveness declining, allowing Chinese firms to capture more market share [23][25][29] - The export of chemical products from China has been increasing, with a net export value of $24.1 billion, indicating a positive trend in mitigating domestic supply pressures [15][31][33] - Companies are increasingly focusing on overseas resource acquisition, such as phosphate and potassium mines, to secure raw materials and enhance their competitive edge [1][35][36]