德国11月工业产出超预期增长 出口却跌至13个月低位

Core Insights - The German economy in November 2025 shows a significant divergence with strong domestic industrial output but weak external demand, indicating a "strong internal, weak external" scenario [1][4] Group 1: Industrial Output - Industrial output in November increased by 0.8% month-on-month, significantly exceeding the market expectation of a 0.4% decline [1] - The automotive sector drove this unexpected performance, with production surging by 7.8%, making it the largest contributor [2] - Excluding the volatile energy sector, which saw a 7.8% decline, the overall industrial output growth reached 2.1% [2] - Capital goods production rose by 4.9%, indicating resilient investment-related demand, while intermediate goods and consumer goods production fell by 0.8% and 0.3%, respectively [2] - The October industrial output data was revised upward from an initial growth of 1.8% to 2.0%, further confirming the ongoing momentum in industrial activity [2] Group 2: Export Performance - In stark contrast to industrial output, German exports fell by 2.5% month-on-month in November, reaching a 13-month low of 128.1 billion euros [1][3] - The trade surplus narrowed to 13.1 billion euros, below the expected 16.5 billion euros and the previous month's 16.9 billion euros [3] - The decline in exports was primarily due to weakened internal demand within the EU, with exports to EU countries dropping by 4.2% [3] - Exports to the United States, Germany's largest export destination, decreased for the second consecutive month, falling by 4.2% in November, following a 7.8% drop in October, attributed to ongoing U.S. tariff policies [3] - Despite the monthly decline, the cumulative export total for the first eleven months of 2025 reached 1.44 trillion euros, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.9% [3] Group 3: Economic Challenges - The data from November highlights a structural contradiction in the German economy, characterized by strong production capabilities but weak external demand [4] - The effective release of domestic industrial capacity, particularly in high-end manufacturing, contrasts with deteriorating external conditions, including slowing EU economic growth and persistent U.S. trade barriers [4]