1月9日白银晚评：今年首份非农数据即将来袭 银价走势向上攀升

Core Viewpoint - The market is closely monitoring upcoming U.S. economic data, particularly the December non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate, which could influence monetary policy and silver prices [1][3]. Economic Data Expectations - There is a significant divergence in market expectations for December non-farm payrolls, with estimates ranging from 25,000 to 155,000. The consensus from FactSet is 55,000, while the Wall Street Journal expects 73,000 and Reuters anticipates 60,000. The unemployment rate is expected to decrease to 4.5% [3]. - Economic forecasts suggest that even strong data may be misleading, with projections indicating that 2025 employment growth could be the weakest in decades, excluding 2020. The U.S. Navy Federal Credit Union predicts only 710,000 jobs added in 2025, marking the worst performance since 2003 outside of recession periods [3]. Federal Reserve Policy Outlook - According to CME data, there is a nearly 90% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates in January, with only an 11% chance of a 25 basis point cut. Recent Fed meeting minutes suggest that a rate cut in January is unlikely [3]. - Future rate cuts are contingent on the labor market; a drop in the unemployment rate to 4.5% or lower may support maintaining rates, while an increase above 4.7% could prompt cuts. The baseline expectation is that no rate cuts will occur during Powell's tenure [3]. Silver Trading Strategy - Silver prices have shown volatility, strengthening bullish momentum supported by the EMA50, with a prevailing upward trend expected in the short term following positive signals from the relative strength index after reaching oversold levels [4]. - A breakout above $83.94 would indicate a restoration of the upward trend, while a drop below $70.07 could shift the primary trend to bearish, potentially accelerating prices down to the mid-term correction range of $64.79 to $60.25, which aligns with a dense support area near the 50-day moving average of $59.60 [4].