央行投放“精耕细作”，2026年流动性充裕格局已明确

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is expected to maintain liquidity through various policy tools, including government bond transactions and Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF), to ensure a continued loose monetary environment in January [1][5]. Group 1: Liquidity Factors - Multiple factors, including fiscal deposits and credit issuance, are anticipated to impact liquidity in January, with a net increase in fiscal deposits estimated at approximately 620 billion yuan, potentially widening the liquidity gap [3][5]. - The total liquidity gap for January 2026 is projected to be around 1.9 trillion yuan, influenced by fiscal deposits, cash withdrawals, and bank reserve requirements [3][5]. Group 2: Policy Tools Utilization - The PBOC is expected to actively utilize policy tools such as reverse repos and MLF to inject medium-term liquidity into the market, reflecting a continuation of the "moderately loose" monetary policy stance [5][7]. - The central bank's approach may include a combination of reverse repos, MLF, and government bond transactions, with a cautious stance on tools like reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions [7][6]. Group 3: Market Expectations - Market expectations indicate that the PBOC will increase the use of policy tools to stabilize the funding environment, with anticipated lower fluctuations in funding rates compared to seasonal patterns [5][6]. - The average overnight funding rate is expected to remain below the policy rate, with a low probability of the one-day bond repurchase rate returning to 1.35%-1.4% throughout January [5][6].